ING forecasts Poland’s central bank to maintain rates at 3.75% through year-end, delaying cuts amid inflation concerns and a stronger Dollar.
The National Bank of Poland is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 3.75% through the end of 2024, delaying monetary easing until policymakers gain confidence in inflation trends. ING’s analysis highlights a narrowing rate differential and recent gains in EUR/PLN, which approached 4.29–4.30, as key factors weighing on the zloty.
Core inflation remains near 3%, while fiscal measures that suppressed fuel prices expired in June, pushing prices higher in July. The NBP’s updated macroeconomic projections may show a favorable inflation outlook, but policymakers are likely to wait for clearer signs of sustained disinflation before resuming rate cuts.
Market focus shifts to the NBP’s statement and tomorrow’s press conference, where signals on future policy could further influence the zloty’s trajectory.