Strategists see potential for significant oil price spikes if the Strait of Hormuz remains shut through June, straining global supply buffers.
Morgan Stanley strategists forecast Brent crude could surge to $150 by summer if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, tightening global oil markets. Current U.S. export increases and reduced Chinese imports have mitigated supply risks, but these buffers may not hold under prolonged disruption.
The bank’s base case projects Brent at $100 in Q3 and $90 in Q4, but its bullish scenario sees prices rising to $130-$150 if trade patterns collapse. Prior disruptions in the region have historically driven sharp price increases, though recent stability has limited immediate volatility.
No immediate market reaction was reported, but traders are monitoring geopolitical developments closely amid rising supply concerns.