It’s a rare non-farm payrolls Thursday with US markets closed for July 4 tomorrow.
I don’t think the headline itself is a big event
The consensus is 110K and the market might be a touch below that after yesterday’s ADP but even a big miss to the downside would be brushed aside after the past three numbers were: +214K +179K +172K A miss would be seen as a one-off, though we would surely see some mild USD selling. A strong reading could also be brushed aside. There’s ample talk of the World Cup adding 40K temporary jobs and that could easily be 60K just given the variance.
The risk I see is more tilted towards a good reading and accelerating wage pressures. Wages are a lagging indicator but jobs growth has been running stronger for awhile and an inflationary mindset is creeping back in. Average hourly earnings are forecast up 0.3% m/m and +3.5% y/y.