Bitdeer’s stock faces a 12.5% downside as analysts flag rising ASIC inventory and projected 2026 cash burn of up to $373 million.
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods lowered its price target on Bitdeer (NASDAQ: BTDR) to $11.50, implying a 12.5% decline from the current $13.15. The firm maintained its Market Perform rating but trimmed 2026 revenue estimates to $1.007 billion from $1.06 billion and 2027 EBITDA to $479.6 million from $515.1 million.
Bitdeer’s SEALMINER inventory jumped 143% quarter-over-quarter to $613 million, while external sales of the machines dropped 84%. The company ended Q1 with $261 million in cash against $1.95 billion in total debt, including $713.4 million in related-party borrowings tied to a bitcoin-denominated loan.
KBW projected negative levered free cash flow of $272 million to $373 million for the remainder of 2026, citing rising writedown risks and exposure to BTC volatility.