Prediction market odds show even chances the tech-heavy index closes above 30,000 by year-end amid fading momentum.
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market see roughly 50% odds the Nasdaq-100 will end 2026 above 30,000, a level it first breached in late May. The index has climbed 18% this year but sits just 1% below 30,000 as of midday Tuesday.
The Nasdaq-100 surged 33% from its March 30 low through early June, driven by renewed AI trade optimism. However, confidence appears to be waning, with only 40% odds the index will surpass 32,000 by year-end and 27% odds it reaches 33,000.
UBS expects the broader market rally to persist in the second half of 2026, though technology may no longer lead the advance, potentially capping gains for the tech-heavy index.