Global oil supply losses of 13.7 million barrels per day in April could drive Brent to $150 and US inflation to 4%, the bank forecasts.
JPMorgan warns that April’s global oil supply disruptions of 13.7 million barrels per day could push Brent crude to $150 and lift US headline inflation to 4%. The bank estimates inventories drew down at 7.1 million bpd, leaving the market short by 2 million bpd even after the reduction.
The supply gap equals roughly 14% of global demand, with spare capacity from Saudi Arabia and the UAE effectively unavailable due to Strait of Hormuz closures. Demand destruction reached 4.3 million bpd in April, nearly double the peak seen during the 2008 financial crisis.
JPMorgan’s base case sees Brent trading between $120 and $130, with $150-plus possible if disruptions extend into mid-May. The bank expects US CPI to hit 4% by May, keeping the Federal Reserve on hold well into 2027.