In brief – J.P.
Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years, its first long-term forecast for the asset. – That tops its forecasts for U.S. large-cap stocks (7.5%) and gold (5.5%), but comes with 55% annualized volatility. – The firm left Bitcoin out of its main portfolio models, citing volatility and unstable correlations, and called the currency debasement bull case “wide of the mark.” Bitcoin just earned a spot in one of Wall Street’s most closely watched return forecasts, and it landed at the top of the table
J.P. Morgan Asset Management projected a 10% compound annual return for Bitcoin over the next 10 to 15 years in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, released Monday. It’s the 31st annual edition of the report and the first to include Bitcoin.
The forecast tops the firm’s projections for U.S. large-cap stocks at 7.5%, gold at 5.5% and a classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio at 7%. The catch is volatility. The report pegs Bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%, compared with about 17% for gold.