Tehran signals cooperation with Tokyo amid negotiations, but insurance risks and shadow fleets limit shipping recovery.
Iran has agreed to ease transit for Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil chokepoint, following talks between President Pezeshkian and Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi. The move aims to facilitate marine traffic, though uncertainty persists over recent claims of 15 ships, including four oil tankers, passing the strait in 24 hours.
Shipping activity remains well below pre-war levels, with many vessels operating as part of opaque “shadow fleets” that disable tracking systems. Analysts suggest Iran’s gesture may be tied to broader diplomatic efforts, particularly with the U.S., but persistent risks deter commercial operators.
Maritime insurance remains a key obstacle, as insurers hesitate to cover ships in the region due to escalation risks. Without coverage, most operators are unlikely to resume normal transit, keeping the strait’s recovery fragile.