TD Securities analysts say rising ship-to-ship transfers via Oman near 7-8m b/d still lag pre-war flows, keeping balances tight despite deal chatter.
Crude oil markets remain tight despite growing speculation over an Iran-Oman route deal, with ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman rising to 7-8m barrels per day. Analysts note this increase still falls short of pre-war regional flow levels, which were double current volumes.
Regional flows via Fujairah and Yanbu remain subdued, holding at just 50% of pre-war levels. Even with potential deal-related leakage, fundamentals suggest limited downside as China demand absorbs incremental supply.
Talks between Iran and Oman signal Iranian control over export routes, with demands for US concessions like unfrozen funds. However, analysts argue this is unlikely to materially boost flows beyond existing leakage.