Proposed framework for shared control of shipping lanes may reduce disruption fears and pressure oil risk premiums.
Iran and Oman have agreed on broad outlines for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, shifting focus to implementation details rather than whether a deal will materialize. The proposed service fee and voluntary fund structure, modeled after the Strait of Malacca, suggests a durable framework rather than a temporary fix, potentially easing transit risk concerns.
Oil prices settled around 5% lower earlier as talks progressed, with private inventory surveys showing a crude build contrary to expectations. Goldman Sachs maintains its Brent forecast range of $80 to $90 a barrel until a US-Iran agreement is confirmed or attacks escalate significantly.
The arrangement divides control, with Iran managing the inbound channel and Oman the outbound, though potential friction remains if either side is perceived to gain disproportionate influence. US Central Command confirmed the southern route remains open, reinforcing the narrative that recent disruptions were more perception than reality.