Societe Generale forecasts India’s inflation to accelerate in April due to food, fuel, and supply-chain risks within RBI’s tolerance band.
India’s April Consumer Price Index inflation is expected to climb to 3.9% year-on-year from 3.4% in March, driven by rising food and fuel costs. The increase reflects conflict-related energy shocks and supply-chain stress in vegetables and edible oils, alongside pipeline risks from fertilizers and weather disruptions.
The Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band remains intact, but the upward trend marks the first clear pickup since March. Food inflation, accounting for a significant portion of the CPI basket, is particularly vulnerable to volatility in perishables and cooking inputs, with vegetables and edible oils showing early signs of broad-based pressure.
Broader risks include El Niño-linked weather patterns and low dam storage, which could further strain food supplies. Historically, simultaneous rises in vegetable and edible oil prices have amplified food inflation across both fresh and processed categories.