Quick Read – GLD dropped 23% since the Iran conflict began, turning a $10,000 investment into roughly $7,694 despite gold’s reputation as a safe haven. – Lockheed Martin fell 22% over the same window, suggesting markets had already priced in conflict risk before fighting…
arted. – Steve Weiss publicly exited his GLD position in late June while the VIX collapsed to 16, signaling a fading fear premium for gold. – When the Safe Haven Broke Script The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:GLD) is the largest and most liquid way for investors to own physical gold bullion, carrying an expense ratio of just 0.40%. For decades, the reflex trade during a war has been simple: buy gold
Uncertainty rises, real yields wobble, and bullion catches a bid. The Iran conflict began on February 28, 2026, a Saturday, so we measure this investment from the first trading day, Monday, March 2, 2026. Gold went in with real momentum after a two-year rally, with early-year coverage citing bullion near $4,370 an ounce and UBS targeting $5,000 on central bank buying and policy uncertainty.
Then bullion did something odd. It fell. And it kept falling even as the VIX peaked at 31.05 on March 27, 2026, precisely when the safe-haven playbook says gold should have worked.