Rising hostilities between Washington and Tehran may disrupt global oil stockpiles after prices fell $31 in June to $68 a barrel.
The International Energy Agency warned that renewed U.S.-Iran conflict could derail its forecast for an oil market surplus next year. Despite recent recovery in flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the first stock build since the war began, escalating tensions may reverse the trend.
Oil prices dropped sharply after a June MoU between the U.S. and Iran, with North Sea Dated prices declining $31 per barrel to $68 by early July—the lowest since January. The IEA noted the surplus outlook hinges on stable geopolitical conditions.
No immediate market reaction was specified, but the warning underscores volatility risks in crude supplies.