The International Energy Agency reduces Russia’s 2026-2027 oil production outlook due to sustained Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure.
The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for Russia’s oil production in 2026 and 2027, citing ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes targeting refineries, storage, and transport assets. Russia’s output averaged 9.2 million barrels per day in 2025, but projections for the next two years have been downgraded from earlier estimates.
Prior forecasts had assumed limited disruption to Russia’s energy sector, but repeated attacks have forced revisions. The IEA’s monthly report did not specify new output targets but noted persistent damage to critical infrastructure.
Markets have yet to react significantly, as the downgrade aligns with existing geopolitical risks already priced into oil benchmarks.