The National Bank of Hungary reduced its EUR liquidity swap rate, widening the gap to its policy rate by 1pp as inflation cools.
The National Bank of Hungary (MNB) lowered the implied interest rate on EUR liquidity swaps by 50 basis points, effectively signaling a potential shift toward monetary easing. The move widens the gap between the swap rate and the main policy rate to 1 percentage point, though the base rate remains unchanged for now.
While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) maintained a wait-and-see stance, the June Inflation Report is expected to provide clarity on the outlook for rate cuts. Core inflation has remained stable, and a reduction in Hungary’s risk premium may create room for future policy adjustments.
Commerzbank analysts do not expect the Forint to weaken significantly, citing strong real rates and political stability following recent elections. Calmer commodity markets are seen as a prerequisite for any formal easing.