Societe Generale forecasts a 25bp rate cut by Hungary’s MNB today, citing dovish minutes and softer inflation at 1.2% YoY in July.
Hungary’s Magyar Nemzeti Bank is poised to cut its base rate by 25 basis points to 5.50% today, marking its fourth reduction this year. The move follows dovish July meeting minutes and July inflation printing at 1.2% year-on-year, below expectations, signaling room for further easing.
Analysts project inflation to stabilize at 1.5% in 2026 and 2.4% in 2027, with policy rates easing to 5.00% by end-2026 and 4.00% by end-2027. EUR/HUF has retreated to around 362 after failing to breach resistance near 368, with key support at 359/358.
A hawkish surprise could push EUR/HUF back toward 360, while a break above the 200-day moving average near 371 would signal a broader rebound. The pair remains constrained by resistance, with no clear signs of a sustained upside.