Here are the changes in today’s MPR: GDP growth (annual) Essentially a wash on growth.
Here are the changes in today’s MPR: GDP growth (annual) Essentially a wash on growth. The Bank explicitly states “the impact of higher global oil prices on economic activity is small.” Government spending got revised up (provincial budgets), residential investment got revised down (affordability still biting).
Net-zero. CPI inflation (annual) This is where the oil shock shows up. The 2026 inflation track is 30 bps higher, entirely on energy.
The fuel excise tax suspension that kicked in last week provides a partial offset (10c per litre). Notably, the Bank thinks it gets back to target on the same timeline — early 2027 — which is … optimistic, particularly with Trump today talking about a multi-month Iran blockade. Quarterly inflation path (year-over-year) The Q4 2026 number is the tell.