Analysts project Strait of Hormuz oil flows will reach only half of prewar levels within a month, with full recovery unlikely before late 2026.
Oil markets are pricing in relief ahead of actual supply normalization, but energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz are expected to remain below 50% of prewar levels for at least a month. Full recovery may not occur until late 2026 or later, hindered by persistent war-risk insurance premiums and unresolved legal disputes.
War-risk insurance costs remain at 1-4% of vessel value per transit, up from below 0.1% prewar. Mine clearance, a prerequisite for safe passage, could take 40-50 days or extend to six months. An estimated 300 loaded and 250 empty vessels are stranded in the Gulf, with 300 more tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman.
Independent verification of safe passage and material reductions in insurance costs are required before supply-driven price relief can materialize. The legal and sanctions minefield between Washington and Tehran further complicates shippers’ operations.