S&P Global projects Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes will reach only three-quarters of pre-war levels by late 2026, limiting crude price declines.
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding on Hormuz transit, set for signing June 14, offers limited near-term relief for energy markets. S&P Global forecasts second-half 2026 shipping volumes will average 75% of pre-war levels, with constraints persisting into 2027 due to insurance, infrastructure damage, and risk aversion.
The framework aligns with S&P’s base case but does not alter existing projections. Pre-war volumes remain a distant benchmark, with operational bottlenecks and geopolitical risks keeping a premium embedded in crude prices. Durability hinges on subsequent negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program and proxy networks.
Markets face a prolonged normalization, with the deal’s fragility posing a key downside risk. No immediate forecast revisions have been made, reflecting cautious optimism.