Rabobank modeling shows a prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure would deplete European oil product buffers, hitting jet fuel and naphtha hardest.
A year-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz would exhaust Europe’s oil product inventories, forcing significant demand reductions, particularly in jet fuel, naphtha, and fuel oil. The assessment uses a partial supply-chain model to gauge refined product bottlenecks and required adjustments.
A three-month disruption would likely be absorbed through price increases rather than physical shortages. However, extended closures would strain buffers, with aviation, logistics, and air-freight-dependent sectors facing the sharpest impacts.
Asia and Oceania are more vulnerable due to lower stockpiles, limited refining capacity, and heavier reliance on Middle Eastern supply routes.