Quick Read – HD trades at 20x forward P/E, down 7% over the past year as depressed housing turnover and falling customer transactions pressure shares. – The model’s base case targets $374 for a 15% two-year return, while $450 by 2028 hinges on housing normalization, margin…
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Home Depot (NYSE:HD) is the largest home improvement retailer in America, and right now it’s stuck in a frustrating holding pattern. CEO Ted Decker told investors after Q1 that “the underlying demand in our business was relatively similar to what we saw throughout fiscal 2025, despite greater consumer uncertainty and housing affordability pressure.” Translation: the business is fine, the macro is not. Shares are down 3.89% YTD while consumer spending grinds higher.
So can HD really hit $450 by 2028? Let’s run the math. What’s Holding Home Depot Back Right Now The issue is the housing cycle.