Goldman Sachs projects 60% of Gulf oil exports could avoid Hormuz by 2028, but near-term price premiums remain intact.
Gulf states are advancing pipeline and export infrastructure projects to reduce reliance on the Strait of Hormuz, with bypass capacity expected to rise by 3.8 million barrels a day by end-2027. By 2028, total bypass capacity could exceed 14 million barrels a day, insulating over 60% of pre-war Gulf oil exports from potential disruptions.
Despite this expansion, Goldman Sachs notes that 23 million barrels a day of Gulf exports still depend on the Strait, leaving near-term geopolitical risk premiums in Brent and WTI unchanged. The bank’s $76 three-year Brent price assumption faces downside risk as bypass capacity grows, though Qatar’s LNG exports remain vulnerable due to lack of pipeline alternatives.
Longer-dated oil prices may respond more to the buildout, but immediate market reactions are unlikely to shift significantly until bypass capacity materially reduces exposure.