Goldman Sees Record Oil Stock Drawdown as Hormuz Flows Plunge to 5%

Visible crude and fuel inventories drop 8.7 million barrels per day in May, nearly double the rate since conflict began. Global oil stockpiles are declining at a record pace of 8.7 million barrels per day in May, driven by a sharp reduction in flows through the Strait of H

Visible crude and fuel inventories drop 8.7 million barrels per day in May, nearly double the rate since conflict began.

Global oil stockpiles are declining at a record pace of 8.7 million barrels per day in May, driven by a sharp reduction in flows through the Strait of Hormuz, now at just 5% of normal levels. The drawdown is nearly double the average rate observed since the Middle East conflict escalated in February.

The decline reflects lower oil-on-water stocks, as exports have fallen faster than imports, while demand weakness in China and Europe compounds the supply disruption. Chinese refinery imports and fuel sales have dropped, and Europe’s jet fuel imports are running 60% below 2025 average levels.

Brent crude traded near $106 a barrel, up over 70% year-to-date but still below the war-era peak of $126. The unprecedented inventory decline signals tightening supply conditions amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.

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