The S&P 500 is up roughly 10% in 2026.
Global earnings are being revised higher
Corporate capital spending is at levels not seen in decades. Goldman Sachs published a global strategy note on May 19 that agrees with all of that. And then it explains why the rally may be more fragile than it looks.
Why equities are rising and what is doing most of the work Goldman’s analysts Peter Oppenheimer, Sharon Bell, Guillaume Jaisson, and Giovanni Ferrannini published their note titled “Momentum risks yielding to bonds.” Nominal global GDP growth is running at 5.9% in 2026, up from 4.7% in 2025, with earnings revisions positive across every S&P 500 sector. The earnings picture has been unusually strong. Bottom-up consensus estimates for S&P 500 EPS in both 2026 and 2027 have each been revised upward by 8 percentage points so far this year.