Goldman Sachs kept its 2H26 TTF gas price forecast at 41 EUR/MWh but flagged potential winter spikes above 100 EUR/MWh if Hormuz remains blocked.
Goldman Sachs left its TTF gas price forecasts largely unchanged at 41 EUR/MWh for the second half of 2026 and 30 EUR/MWh for 2027. The bank delayed its LNG flow normalization timeline to end-July, citing slower-than-expected market clearing post-MOU signing.
The note highlighted upside risks, particularly a potential winter price surge above 100 EUR/MWh if the Hormuz blockade persists. Such a scenario would double Goldman’s base case and pressure European industrial demand, power prices, and inflation. The bank’s 2028-29 forecasts were cut sharply to 19-16 EUR/MWh, reflecting long-term LNG supply growth expectations.
While the Hormuz blockade is not Goldman’s central case, its explicit quantification of the risk may influence trader positioning on the upside.