Jan Hatzius forecasts July CPI at 0.05% MoM headline and 0.19% core, reinforcing a softer inflation trajectory ahead of the Fed’s September meeting.
Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius expects July’s US consumer price index to print near 0.05% month-on-month for the headline and 0.19% for core, matching or slightly undershooting consensus estimates. The forecast aligns with a cooling trend observed since June, potentially reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve to tighten further this year.
Hatzius attributed earlier inflation surprises in 2026 to temporary factors, including tariffs, while revising downward the bank’s underlying payrolls trend to just 5,000 jobs per month from 75,000. The shift underscores a rapid deterioration in labor market conditions beneath volatile monthly data.
The economist maintained that no rate hike is necessary in 2024, citing ongoing declines in rent and wage inflation. The discussion also highlighted Fed credibility risks if policymakers shift their primary inflation gauge from core PCE to another metric.