Traders on the prediction market Polymarket see gold rising further this month but stopping short of a return to its January peak, with bets clustering around a July high of $4,300 an ounce.
Gold was trading at around $4,127 on Tuesday, up more than 3% on the day, as the metal continued to recover from a bruising first half of the year
Bettors put a 54% probability on the price touching $4,300 at some point in July. The odds thin out quickly above that level, at 31% for $4,400 and 18% for $4,500. A move back to $4,600 was given just a 6% chance.
The wagers reflect a market that has stabilised rather than roared back. Gold soared to a record above $5,500 an ounce in January before shedding more than a quarter of its value, briefly dropping below $4,000 in late June. That slump ranked among its worst quarterly declines in over a decade.