Trump’s claim of a pending Iran deal lifted gold briefly, though Iran’s denial of negotiations limited the rally ahead of US CPI data.
Gold prices edged higher at the start of the week after President Trump announced the cancellation of planned strikes on Iran, citing progress toward a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The move aligns with his strategy of escalating tensions before seeking de-escalation, though Iran swiftly denied the claims and maintained the strait’s closure due to US actions. The mixed signals kept gold’s upside in check, with markets awaiting further developments and US inflation data for direction.
Prior to the announcement, gold had been under pressure amid expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates. The metal broke above a downward trendline but failed to sustain momentum, consolidating near recent lows. Traders are now eyeing the 3,995 support level, with a break below potentially targeting 3,885. Resistance lies near 4,400, where sellers may re-emerge.
A confirmed de-escalation could ease inflation concerns and reduce rate hike bets, supporting gold. Conversely, renewed tensions may weigh on the metal, pushing it toward fresh lows. Market focus remains on US CPI and geopolitical updates for clearer signals.