Citi and Morgan Stanley lift gold forecasts after prices surpass $4,450 target ahead of schedule amid Fed policy shifts.
Gold prices have surged past $4,450 an ounce, a level banks had projected for later this year, prompting analysts to revise upward their year-end and 2027 targets. Morgan Stanley now sees potential for the metal to exceed $5,000 an ounce by 2027, citing softer Fed tightening expectations and renewed ETF demand.
ETF inflows rebounded with 70 metric tons in July and August after 93 tons of outflows in May and June. Central banks continue to buy on price dips, while an unusual decoupling between gold and real yields suggests growing concerns over fiscal sustainability rather than yield levels.
Short interest on COMEX remains thin, reducing the scope for short-covering rallies that previously drove gains. The metal’s rapid ascent has outpaced expectations, with banks adjusting timelines and ceilings accordingly.