Analysts forecast gold near USD 4,700/oz by year-end, citing muted drawdowns and fair value models despite recent volatility.
Gold prices have entered a prolonged explosive phase since August 2024, though recent movements suggest a muted correction. Analysts note downside signals from long-term gold-to-commodity ratios, which imply potential declines to USD 2,600/oz when adjusted for growth trends.
This episode marks one of only five such explosive phases since 1975, with regression analysis indicating limited downward extensions. Gold may have already bottomed near USD 3,900/oz, avoiding a deeper drop to USD 3,700/oz. Fair value models, adjusted for demand and real rates, project gold at USD 4,700/oz by year-end, slightly above the USD 4,600/oz forecast for Q4 2026.