ICAC projects cotton trade growth despite supply challenges and geopolitical risks, with production set to decline in 2026/27.
Global cotton trade is expected to climb to 10.3 million tonnes by the 2028/29 season, up from 9.4 million tonnes in 2025/26. The increase comes amid supply-side pressures and geopolitical uncertainty, with markets adjusting to shifting sourcing dynamics and stable consumption trends.
World production is forecast to drop 2% to 25.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, while consumption holds steady at 25.5 million tonnes. The narrowing gap between supply and demand underscores the growing importance of exporters’ inventories in meeting international needs.
Brazil is set to remain the top cotton lint exporter in 2025/26, driven by strong harvests and competitive pricing. Meanwhile, US cotton exports, which dipped in 2025/26, are projected to rebound by 3% in 2026/27 due to higher ending stocks.