The British pound rises above its 200-day EMA for the first time since mid-June, defying geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed rhetoric.
The British pound climbed above 1.3400 against the US dollar on Thursday, crossing its 200-day Exponential Moving Average for the first time since mid-June. The move came despite a hawkish Federal Reserve tone and escalating Middle East tensions, which typically support the dollar.
US Initial Jobless Claims fell to 215K, below the 218K consensus and prior 217K print, while a voting FOMC member delivered hawkish remarks. Existing Home Sales dropped 2.4% month-over-month in June, the sole weak data point. Geopolitical risks also weighed, with US strikes on Iran and suspended oil sanctions adding to market uncertainty.
Despite these factors, the dollar failed to gain traction, with market pricing reflecting a roughly 75% chance of a Fed hold in July. The pound’s resilience suggests positioning ahead of potential shifts in UK monetary policy.