The final FOMC decision with Jerome Powell as chair: Prior was 3.50-3.75% The FOMC wraps up its two-day meeting this afternoon, and for once the rate decision itself is the easy part.
The final FOMC decision with Jerome Powell as chair: Prior was 3.50-3.75% The FOMC wraps up its two-day meeting this afternoon, and for once the rate decision itself is the easy part. The committee is universally expected to leave the funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, where it has sat since the start of the year.
Rates markets aren’t pricing a single basis point of movement. The interesting stuff is everywhere else. The setup heading in is genuinely awkward.
The Iran conflict and the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz blew a hole in the inflation picture in March, dragging headline CPI back up to 3.3% from a far more comfortable 2.4% in February. April nowcasts have it pushing toward 3.6%. That’s the highest print in close to three years and it lands at exactly the wrong moment for a Fed that had finally convinced itself disinflation was on track.