Standard Chartered analysts say recent market moves only modestly tightened conditions, leaving a near-1-point boost to one-year-ahead GDP.
The Federal Reserve’s Financial Conditions Impulse on Growth index remains supportive, adding 0.9 percentage points to US GDP growth over the next year. Analysts note that despite recent equity sell-offs, a stronger USD, and higher long-term rates, tightening has been moderate compared to prior market rallies.
In May 2026, the index reached its most accommodative level since the early 2000s, excluding the COVID period. Before the June FOMC, loose conditions were estimated to contribute over 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth, a slight reduction from earlier projections.
Updated estimates show financial markets would have added an additional 0.1 percentage point to growth if conditions had remained at pre-June FOMC levels.