Prediction markets now price a 26.65% chance of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase, up 8.9 percentage points in 24 hours.
Prediction markets sharply raised the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike ahead of its two-day July meeting. Polymarket’s implied odds for a 25-basis-point increase jumped 9.7 points to 26.65%, while the “no change” outcome fell 8.9 percentage points to 73.25%. Total trading volume reached $100.83 million, with $5.78 million in the past day.
Fed-funds futures, used by professional traders, priced a 37.6% chance of a hike Monday afternoon, up from prior sessions. A 25-basis-point increase would lift the Fed’s target range to 3.75%-4.00%. Myriad, another prediction platform, showed similar odds, with a 27% chance of a hike after an 8% increase in implied probability.
The shift follows recent economic data and market speculation about the Fed’s next move, though no immediate market reaction was detailed in the latest updates.