New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh halts rate projections and guidance, tying future moves to economic data rather than market expectations.
The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75% through four consecutive FOMC meetings this year, marking a shift under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh, who succeeded Jerome Powell in May, declined to provide forward guidance or submit personal rate projections during the mid-June meeting, breaking from prior Fed practice.
The Fed previously raised rates 11 times in 2022-2023 to a peak of 5.25%-5.50% before cutting six times in 2024-2025. Inflation targeting remains at 2%, but Warsh’s data-dependent approach removes clarity on future moves, complicating 2026 rate forecasts.
Markets showed little reaction to the steady rates, as investors had anticipated the pause. The lack of guidance, however, introduces uncertainty about the Fed’s next steps amid evolving economic conditions.