Traders price 38 bps of ECB hikes by year-end as key GDP and CPI figures loom across Europe today.
European markets face a heavy data slate today, including Q2 GDP and July CPI prints from France, Spain, Germany, Italy, and the eurozone. The figures arrive as the ECB holds rates steady, with investors eyeing potential surprises that could shift policy expectations.
Markets currently assign a 64% probability of an ECB rate move in September, with 38 bps of tightening priced in for 2024. Recent inflation trends and growth signals will determine whether this outlook holds or adjusts.
The session also includes the Bank of England’s July decision and Governor Bailey’s press conference, adding to the day’s macro focus amid broader market volatility.