Analysts forecast a 0.1 percentage point reduction in euro area GDP growth due to summer heatwave effects on supply chains.
The euro area’s Q3 GDP growth is expected to slow by 0.1 percentage points due to a summer heatwave, acting as a negative supply shock. The impact stems primarily from weaker German economic activity, linked to low water levels in the Rhine River disrupting transport and industrial output.
Prior forecasts had not accounted for weather-related disruptions, though the overall effect remains marginal. Comparable periods of extreme weather have shown limited long-term economic consequences, with growth typically rebounding in subsequent quarters.
Markets are unlikely to react significantly to the revision, given its modest scale and temporary nature.