ING forecasts EUR/USD rangebound trading at 1.1515-1.1560 as one-year volatility drops to multi-month lows.
EUR/USD one-year realized volatility fell to 5.8%, matching November 2024 lows, as markets remain calm ahead of central bankers’ return in mid-September. ING expects limited movement outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today.
The decline in volatility reflects subdued trading conditions during the summer lull, with no major catalysts expected until policymakers reconvene. Prior volatility prints had stabilized near current levels in late 2024.
ING warns European investors in US assets may face hedge ratio adjustments if the USD weakens, potentially adding pressure to currency markets.