ABN AMRO forecasts EUR/USD at 1.14 near term due to elevated oil prices, rising to 1.20 by late 2026 on ECB policy.
EUR/USD may decline toward 1.14 in the coming months as persistent high oil prices weigh on the Eurozone’s energy-dependent economy. Analysts cite volatility tied to geopolitical risks, including delays in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which could prolong supply disruptions.
The pair has traded within a range amid shifting expectations for energy market stability. Prior forecasts had not fully priced in sustained oil price pressures, though a more hawkish ECB stance relative to the Fed is expected to support a rebound later.
By end-2026, lower energy costs and ECB policy divergence could lift EUR/USD to 1.20, according to the outlook.