ING models estimate EUR/USD short-term fair value at 1.1600-1.1650, driven by tighter two-year swap spreads.
EUR/USD shows modest undervaluation, with fair value estimated at 1.1600-1.1650 based on a 10-basis-point tightening in two-year swap spreads. The adjustment reflects higher beta sensitivity compared to other drivers.
Prior consensus placed the pair below 1.1600, with technical support strengthening around 1.1500. Eurozone second-quarter GDP revisions, due today, are expected to confirm the initial 0.4% quarter-on-quarter print with no material changes.
A break above 1.1600 remains unlikely without a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve, though the bias stays positive for the pair.