Investors have already priced in a potential National Rally victory with fiscal prudence, limiting euro volatility, analysts note.
A Paris appeal court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility is expected to have minimal impact on the euro, as markets have largely factored in a National Rally (RN) win under Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. Analysts see limited downside for EUR/USD, with potential retests of 1.1400 but no major shift in sentiment.
Polls show Le Pen or Bardella leading comfortably against left-wing candidates like Jean-Luc Mélenchon, though run-offs against center-right figures such as Edouard Philippe or Gabriel Attal could be tighter. The RN’s fiscal prudence, akin to Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, is seen as a stabilizing factor for bonds and the euro.
ING analysts suggest only a surge in support for left-wing candidates would unsettle markets at this stage, with OATs and the euro remaining relatively stable otherwise.