European natural gas prices remain supported as storage levels sit below historical averages amid modest LNG supply recovery and Middle East disruptions.
European natural gas prices have outperformed oil, driven by limited LNG supply recovery and ongoing disruptions in Middle East flows. Storage levels in the EU recently surpassed 50%, well below the five-year average of 66% for this period, complicating efforts to meet the bloc’s 75% target by winter.
Heatwaves have lifted demand, while QatarEnergy’s force majeure extension on some supplies until early September further tightens the market. El Niño conditions may ease pressure later, but ING expects prices to stay supported through the 2026/27 winter.
The modest ramp-up of Qatari LNG plants adds to supply constraints, reinforcing the bullish outlook for European gas prices despite potential seasonal relief.