Analysts warn of potential downside for Ether as exchange inflows increase and derivatives activity cools significantly.
Ether’s struggle to break above $1,700 has analysts flagging elevated exchange inflows, raising concerns over a possible selling wave. New depositor activity remains subdued, with only 320 addresses recorded, far below levels seen during prior demand surges. This suggests limited fresh capital entering the market, leaving price stability reliant on existing holders.
Derivatives data underscores the cautious sentiment. Ether futures open interest fell to $10.3 billion from $15 billion a month ago, a 31% decline and the lowest since April 2025. The estimated leverage ratio also dropped to 0.83 from a June 2 high of 1.10, marking the largest unwind since October 2025. Lower leverage typically reduces short-term volatility but signals weaker trader conviction.
Daily ETH issuance remains near 2,791 ETH, a relatively low figure post-EIP-1559. While supply growth offers some counterbalance, exchange flow data and cooling derivatives activity point to downside risks if resistance levels are tested.