Super El Niño may tighten thermal coal markets
A potential ‘super El Niño’ event in mid-2026 could lead to higher thermal coal prices.
The event is expected to trigger intense heatwaves across Asia, increasing demand for air conditioning and coal-fired power.
Indonesian and Australian producers may benefit from the increased demand, although new export quotas could constrain Indonesian supply.
Global power systems are already under strain due to the US-Iran conflict, and the weather event may compound existing supply pressures.