The European Central Bank’s wage tracker shows negotiated wage growth stabilizing at 2.7% in early 2027, unchanged from prior projections.
The ECB’s wage tracker, covering active collective bargaining agreements, indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7% in Q1 2027, extending its forward-looking horizon to March 2027. The figure reflects smoothed one-off payments and covers 28.4% of employees in participating countries.
For 2026, the tracker projects wage growth of 2.3%, unchanged from the June release, with coverage at 44.3%. The ECB noted no material shift in wage pressures despite new agreements signed through July 2026.
The tracker’s horizon will expand to Q2 2027 in the September data release as coverage of 2027 contracts increases. The smoothed version better captures quarterly dynamics by averaging one-off payments over time.