Commerzbank expects the ECB to raise rates Thursday, with another hike in September but no July follow-up due to easing inflation pressures.
The European Central Bank is poised to deliver a 25 basis point rate hike on Thursday, marking its first increase since September 2023. The move is widely anticipated and fully priced into markets, reflecting a shift toward tighter monetary policy amid persistent inflation concerns.
Analysts see limited scope for a back-to-back hike in July, deeming it premature, but expect another 25bp increase in September. Lower oil prices later in the year are projected to ease inflationary pressures, reducing the need for further restrictive measures.
Market focus will center on the ECB’s guidance regarding future moves, particularly whether policymakers signal additional tightening beyond September. The central bank’s stance will hinge on incoming economic data and inflation trends.