Nomura forecasts a 25bp ECB deposit rate increase to 2.50% next month, citing euro area resilience and persistent inflation.
Nomura strategists expect the European Central Bank to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% in September, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran war. The forecast follows evidence of euro area economic resilience, with GDP excluding Ireland growing 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in H1 2026.
Euro area HICP inflation is projected to remain at 2.8%, aligning with prior prints but slightly below market consensus. The ECB’s policy path beyond September will hinge on the duration and severity of the Iran conflict, though recent communications suggest a September hike is likely.
The firm views the rate increase as a near-certainty, reinforced by recent re-escalation in the conflict and consistent ECB signaling. Markets have priced in the move, though further tightening remains data-dependent.