BNP Paribas forecasts Eurozone GDP growth decelerating to 1.0% in 2026 before a modest rebound to 1.3% in 2027.
Eurozone GDP growth is projected to slow to 1.0% in 2026 from 1.5% in 2025, before recovering slightly to 1.3% in 2027. The deceleration follows a period of resilience driven by investment in defense, AI, and other sectors, offsetting energy shocks.
Inflation is expected to rebound to 3.0% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027, complicating the economic outlook. The European Central Bank’s policy tightening and ongoing AI-related investments are seen as key supports for the euro amid weaker growth prospects.
Market focus remains on the balance between inflation pressures and growth risks, with potential implications for ECB policy adjustments.