PRESS RELEASE ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2026 23 October 2026 – median consumer perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months and expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, while median expectations for inflation three…
ars and five years ahead were unchanged; – expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased, as did expectations for spending growth over the next 12 months; – expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months’ time increased; – expectations for growth in the price of homes over the next 12 months increased, while expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged Inflation In September the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased, to 3.1% from 3.0%
Median expectations for inflation three years ahead and median expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, remaining higher than the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile.
Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70). Inflation resultsIncome and consumption Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% in September from 1.0% in August. As in previous months expectations were, on average, higher in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) than in the top quintile (1.2%).